As we get closer to elections here in Israel there are lots of polls. In general, these polls tend to be less accurate than in America. I imagine there are a few reasons for this: the multitude of different parties, the fact that we're so much smaller than the US (meaning there are comparatively less resources devoted to elections and election polling) or simply the fact that Nate Silver's not Israeli. But at this point it seems likely that Labor and Likud will be the two largest parties in some order and, even if Labor wins, they will have a tough time forming a coalition (joining together with other parties to reach a minimum of 61 members of the 120 seat Knesset). According to this recent poll by the Times of Israel (and I encourage you to read the article, which, among other things, shows Netanyahu's falling popularity) for example, Labor is likely to get the most seats with 27. Their most likely coalition partners (in my opinion) would be Yesh Atid (centrist, this poll has them at 11 seats), Kulanu (centrist but a little more to the right, this poll has them at 10 seats) and Meretz (the most left wing party in the Knesset, this poll has them at 4 seats). Together, this gets them to a total of 53 seats. Their only options for forming a government, assuming they can't entice Likud or one of the other right wing parties (Yisrael Beiteinu-Israel Our Home and HaBayit HaYehudi-The Jewish Home) to join them is to invite the Ultra-orthodox parties (16 seats according to this poll) or the Arab party (11 seats according to this poll). All of these options are problematic.
First of all, I feel compelled to remind us all of the old adage that "politics makes strange bedfellows", and anything can happen, but I find all of these scenarios unlikely. The right far right parties would have to make extremely deep ideological compromises to join a Labor government. Likud, having just come off years of being in charge, is unlikely, in my view to feel the need to make compromises just for the sake of remaining in the governing coalition, especially if there's a chance that Labor can't form a government (which makes it likely Likud would be asked to do so). The ultra-orthodox have been Israel's kingmakers for years; our political system makes them ideal partners, since they'll support much of a major party's agenda in exchange for a few very specific concessions. But in the last few years there has been rising anger over their unwillingness to "contribute to society" through army service or joining the workforce (many if not most ultra-orthodox men spend their whole lives studying in yeshiva, neither joining the army or getting a job). Especially on the left I think there would be great anger over the compromises that would be necessary to convince the ultra-orthodox to join the government. This leaves the United Arab List.
In the history of Israel no Arab party has ever been a part of the governing coalition and it seems exceedingly unlikely that it will happen this time. However, there have been important changes that I think make it more likely that we will see this happen in my lifetime. In this past Knesset they raised the minimum number of seats required in order to be a part of the Knesset (ie you have to get at least four seats in order to be in the Knesset), to try and reduce the number of smaller parties. This means that many of the current Arab parties will be very close to threshold if they run independently in the upcoming elections. As a result they have joined together for the first time on the United Arab List, which, according to the poll, is likely to get something like 11 seats, giving them more power than they have ever had (this is a link to an article specifically looking at this issue, not the poll I linked to above). There is some evidence (still very unclear) that the unification of the Arab parties will increase the historically-low Arab voter turnout as well, which could dramatically influence the results. Even the currently predicted 11 seats will leave them vastly under-represented compared to their percentage of the population (Israeli Arabs are about 20% of the population, which means they "should" have ~24 seats in the Knesset).
The fact that the Arab community votes at very low levels and have been divided among a number of different parties has given them less political power than they could have. For some Israeli-Arabs, they don't vote for ideological reasons; they don't recognize the legitimacy of the Jewish state. For others, they believe that Israel won't respond to their needs no matter what, so why vote? And, of course, as with any other democratic elections, some people just don't vote. In my (American, democracy is the-best-thing-in-the-world) opinion, this has been a major blunder on their part. If they received anything close to the number of seats their population suggests they should they would be a major political force, as opposed to the fringe players they have been so far.
I moved to Israel in order to live in a Jewish state, and I would be deeply disappointed, if, all of a sudden, we stopped being one. So I acknowledge the very problematic situation of Israeli Arabs who want to live in an Arab state, and/or won't acknowledge the legitimacy of the Jewish state. On the other hand, Jews have been a successful minority and a major part of society in dozens of societies over hundreds of years (ancient Rome, Golden Age Spain, modern day America, etc.) so I recognize this possibility as well. I think this is a particularly apt comparison, since these Jewish minorities, even in the best of times, were often treated significantly worse than modern Arab Israelis. While there is definitely discrimination against Arab Israelis, I also think they are one of the best-treated minorities of all time (which is not to say that we shouldn't do even more to prevent discrimination). I think our treatment of Israeli Arabs compares favorably to the situation of Christians in the Arab world, for example.
If the Arab minority were willing to accept their place as a minority in a Jewish state they would have the political power to demand far more government support for their communities. I am nowhere near knowledgeable enough about the Arab-Israeli community to venture a guess as to whether this is the direction they're moving or not, but I think ("hope" might be a better word here) there are at least some reasons for optimism. First I hope that the further we get from the War of Independence (1948) the less raw the wounds will be for Israeli-Arabs. Second, I hope that as generations of Israeli-Arabs grow up in a Jewish state they will feel more connected to Israeli society (and we should be making every effort to make this the case). Third, after nearly 70 years of existence I hope they will accept our presence here as a fact. Fourth, as the various states around the Middle East collapse, I hope they will appreciate the stability and rule of law (again, I acknowledge there is at least some measure of anti-Arab discrimination, but I feel confident they'd prefer to live here than in Syria) here in Israel. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, I hope they will feel like it is in their own self-interest. If they accept their minority status they could be a much more meaningful part of Israeli politics and improve the lives of their community, which would be good for all of us.
Do you think it's reasonable for us as Jews who demand to live in a Jewish state to expect Israeli-Arabs to give up on the idea of living in an Arab state? Do you think Arab parties can be a part of the governing coalition? Would it require some sort of public declaration accepting Israel as a Jewish state on their part? Is that a fair request? Are there other ways Israel can try and more fully incorporate our Arab minority? Will we begin to see more Israeli-Arabs on other parties' lists? Do they have a future in Israel? Let me know in the comments!
First of all, I feel compelled to remind us all of the old adage that "politics makes strange bedfellows", and anything can happen, but I find all of these scenarios unlikely. The right far right parties would have to make extremely deep ideological compromises to join a Labor government. Likud, having just come off years of being in charge, is unlikely, in my view to feel the need to make compromises just for the sake of remaining in the governing coalition, especially if there's a chance that Labor can't form a government (which makes it likely Likud would be asked to do so). The ultra-orthodox have been Israel's kingmakers for years; our political system makes them ideal partners, since they'll support much of a major party's agenda in exchange for a few very specific concessions. But in the last few years there has been rising anger over their unwillingness to "contribute to society" through army service or joining the workforce (many if not most ultra-orthodox men spend their whole lives studying in yeshiva, neither joining the army or getting a job). Especially on the left I think there would be great anger over the compromises that would be necessary to convince the ultra-orthodox to join the government. This leaves the United Arab List.
In the history of Israel no Arab party has ever been a part of the governing coalition and it seems exceedingly unlikely that it will happen this time. However, there have been important changes that I think make it more likely that we will see this happen in my lifetime. In this past Knesset they raised the minimum number of seats required in order to be a part of the Knesset (ie you have to get at least four seats in order to be in the Knesset), to try and reduce the number of smaller parties. This means that many of the current Arab parties will be very close to threshold if they run independently in the upcoming elections. As a result they have joined together for the first time on the United Arab List, which, according to the poll, is likely to get something like 11 seats, giving them more power than they have ever had (this is a link to an article specifically looking at this issue, not the poll I linked to above). There is some evidence (still very unclear) that the unification of the Arab parties will increase the historically-low Arab voter turnout as well, which could dramatically influence the results. Even the currently predicted 11 seats will leave them vastly under-represented compared to their percentage of the population (Israeli Arabs are about 20% of the population, which means they "should" have ~24 seats in the Knesset).
The fact that the Arab community votes at very low levels and have been divided among a number of different parties has given them less political power than they could have. For some Israeli-Arabs, they don't vote for ideological reasons; they don't recognize the legitimacy of the Jewish state. For others, they believe that Israel won't respond to their needs no matter what, so why vote? And, of course, as with any other democratic elections, some people just don't vote. In my (American, democracy is the-best-thing-in-the-world) opinion, this has been a major blunder on their part. If they received anything close to the number of seats their population suggests they should they would be a major political force, as opposed to the fringe players they have been so far.
I moved to Israel in order to live in a Jewish state, and I would be deeply disappointed, if, all of a sudden, we stopped being one. So I acknowledge the very problematic situation of Israeli Arabs who want to live in an Arab state, and/or won't acknowledge the legitimacy of the Jewish state. On the other hand, Jews have been a successful minority and a major part of society in dozens of societies over hundreds of years (ancient Rome, Golden Age Spain, modern day America, etc.) so I recognize this possibility as well. I think this is a particularly apt comparison, since these Jewish minorities, even in the best of times, were often treated significantly worse than modern Arab Israelis. While there is definitely discrimination against Arab Israelis, I also think they are one of the best-treated minorities of all time (which is not to say that we shouldn't do even more to prevent discrimination). I think our treatment of Israeli Arabs compares favorably to the situation of Christians in the Arab world, for example.
If the Arab minority were willing to accept their place as a minority in a Jewish state they would have the political power to demand far more government support for their communities. I am nowhere near knowledgeable enough about the Arab-Israeli community to venture a guess as to whether this is the direction they're moving or not, but I think ("hope" might be a better word here) there are at least some reasons for optimism. First I hope that the further we get from the War of Independence (1948) the less raw the wounds will be for Israeli-Arabs. Second, I hope that as generations of Israeli-Arabs grow up in a Jewish state they will feel more connected to Israeli society (and we should be making every effort to make this the case). Third, after nearly 70 years of existence I hope they will accept our presence here as a fact. Fourth, as the various states around the Middle East collapse, I hope they will appreciate the stability and rule of law (again, I acknowledge there is at least some measure of anti-Arab discrimination, but I feel confident they'd prefer to live here than in Syria) here in Israel. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, I hope they will feel like it is in their own self-interest. If they accept their minority status they could be a much more meaningful part of Israeli politics and improve the lives of their community, which would be good for all of us.
Do you think it's reasonable for us as Jews who demand to live in a Jewish state to expect Israeli-Arabs to give up on the idea of living in an Arab state? Do you think Arab parties can be a part of the governing coalition? Would it require some sort of public declaration accepting Israel as a Jewish state on their part? Is that a fair request? Are there other ways Israel can try and more fully incorporate our Arab minority? Will we begin to see more Israeli-Arabs on other parties' lists? Do they have a future in Israel? Let me know in the comments!
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